A prediction: In '08, Jim Webb will be the Dems VP candidate.
Why?
Several reasons. For one, I believe that he is adroitly positioning himself for exactly that role. If you look at his actions, you see a politician who is moving at warp speed towards something. He clearly is not running for president, so the next possible object of his affection must be the vice-presidential slot.
I'll get into more specific reasons in a later post.
I simply wanted to be on record, as soon as possible.
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
WHAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND ABOUT FLIP SAUNDERS
The recent Houston-Detroit matchup - which resulted in a Houston win - illustrates a issue that comes up over and over with the Pistons under Saunders.
The Pistons starters started off in a funk. They got way behind. Slowly, but surely, with a big assist from the bench, they got back into the game.
Almost as though he does it without looking at the game or the flow of the action, Saunders inserted his starters back into the game.
The result? The gap grows again and by the time the first half ends, the Pistons are down by 13 points.
The second half starts the same way the first half ends.
Yao Ming is just too big for Webber. He can shoot over him without challenge. The Rockets announcers - the game is on NBATV and I am in Portland, Or - question why the Pistons have gone away from a defensive approach that had worked well for them when the subs were in the game. (Mysteriously, on offense, the Pistons only occasionally try to get Ming in a pick and roll on the perimeter. When they try this it is obvious that Yao cannot play more than about 10 feet from the hoop. At least defensively.)
The Pistons get down by at least 19 and the Houston lead hovers around 17 or 19 points for most of the 3rd quarter.
Here is what I don't get. Despite the obvious deficit and the fact that it ain't workin', Saunders does nothing to try to put a line-up on the court that might be more effective. He lets the game unfold, he lets the lead stand, as though he is just waiting for something to gel with his starters. The only sub for the entire quarter is McDyess for Webber.
Why doesn't Saunders go to his bench? Why not go back to the combinations in the second quarter that worked well? Or at least a line-up that did a more effective job than the starters. Try something!
The Pistons are in a stretch where they are playing a bunch of games in a short period of time. This would appear to be the perfect time to utilize a bench as much as possible. Give the starters a bit of rest and let the bench guys build up some confidence. There has been a lot of lip service to developing the bench, looking for spots where he can rest his starters. Instead, Saunders dies with the starters and doesn't give the bench a sniff.
Why? It cannot be to build chemistry. The starters, except for Webber have been together for ages. Will the bench do worse than the starters? 19 points down?
Unfortunately, this is an old pattern with Saunders as a coach. I think this is the reason he had so little success in Minnesota, despite having the best player in the league for a good part of his tenure there.
There doesn't appear to be a reason other than the fact that Saunders looks to his starters as his security blanket. If they lose, with the starters, well, Houston just played a better game. If he goes to his bench and they lose, then his coaching decisions may be questioned.
This writer can guarantee a particular scenario in this year's playoffs.
The Pistons will be having a problem with a team. They will encounter problems and circumstances where an answer appears obvious to most observers. Will he pull the trigger and insert Delfino for his defense or Maxiell for his defense or shotblocking? Will he be bold enough to sit an ineffective starter and play Flip Murray for 35 minutes because he is hot? I do not think so.
No. Saunders will do nothing, except crouch on the sidelines, contort his face and chew his fingernails. The Pistons will struggle and they may or may not pull together for a win. You can bet, however, that his reluctance or refusal to take quick, decisive action during a game will mystify anyone closely examining the team's performance.
I'd be willing to bet that this reluctance will be exactly why the Pistons do not win a championship this year.
The Pistons starters started off in a funk. They got way behind. Slowly, but surely, with a big assist from the bench, they got back into the game.
Almost as though he does it without looking at the game or the flow of the action, Saunders inserted his starters back into the game.
The result? The gap grows again and by the time the first half ends, the Pistons are down by 13 points.
The second half starts the same way the first half ends.
Yao Ming is just too big for Webber. He can shoot over him without challenge. The Rockets announcers - the game is on NBATV and I am in Portland, Or - question why the Pistons have gone away from a defensive approach that had worked well for them when the subs were in the game. (Mysteriously, on offense, the Pistons only occasionally try to get Ming in a pick and roll on the perimeter. When they try this it is obvious that Yao cannot play more than about 10 feet from the hoop. At least defensively.)
The Pistons get down by at least 19 and the Houston lead hovers around 17 or 19 points for most of the 3rd quarter.
Here is what I don't get. Despite the obvious deficit and the fact that it ain't workin', Saunders does nothing to try to put a line-up on the court that might be more effective. He lets the game unfold, he lets the lead stand, as though he is just waiting for something to gel with his starters. The only sub for the entire quarter is McDyess for Webber.
Why doesn't Saunders go to his bench? Why not go back to the combinations in the second quarter that worked well? Or at least a line-up that did a more effective job than the starters. Try something!
The Pistons are in a stretch where they are playing a bunch of games in a short period of time. This would appear to be the perfect time to utilize a bench as much as possible. Give the starters a bit of rest and let the bench guys build up some confidence. There has been a lot of lip service to developing the bench, looking for spots where he can rest his starters. Instead, Saunders dies with the starters and doesn't give the bench a sniff.
Why? It cannot be to build chemistry. The starters, except for Webber have been together for ages. Will the bench do worse than the starters? 19 points down?
Unfortunately, this is an old pattern with Saunders as a coach. I think this is the reason he had so little success in Minnesota, despite having the best player in the league for a good part of his tenure there.
There doesn't appear to be a reason other than the fact that Saunders looks to his starters as his security blanket. If they lose, with the starters, well, Houston just played a better game. If he goes to his bench and they lose, then his coaching decisions may be questioned.
This writer can guarantee a particular scenario in this year's playoffs.
The Pistons will be having a problem with a team. They will encounter problems and circumstances where an answer appears obvious to most observers. Will he pull the trigger and insert Delfino for his defense or Maxiell for his defense or shotblocking? Will he be bold enough to sit an ineffective starter and play Flip Murray for 35 minutes because he is hot? I do not think so.
No. Saunders will do nothing, except crouch on the sidelines, contort his face and chew his fingernails. The Pistons will struggle and they may or may not pull together for a win. You can bet, however, that his reluctance or refusal to take quick, decisive action during a game will mystify anyone closely examining the team's performance.
I'd be willing to bet that this reluctance will be exactly why the Pistons do not win a championship this year.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Roy Hibbert: An Offensive Version of Mutumbo
If Mutumbo turned back the clock, played basketball at Georgetown in 2007 and concentrated on offense, he would be Roy Hibbert.
Hibbert has the same kind of lumbering, mechanical approach. He has the same labored gait as he pounds up and down the court, appearing to die with each stride. Like Mutumbo, Hibbet makes easy plays look hard and seems incapable of making the simplest on-court task look routine.
For the real-life Mutumbo, that was fine because it is much easier to play like a hack if you are primarily rebounding and blocking shots. It is quite another thing to have the touch of a stevedore while you are trying to score. Anyone who's ever played a pick-up game at the local park knows this: if you have the coordination of PeeWee Herman you can always rebound and play defense, if you have the will. Putting the ball through the hole and hitting a jumper will be another matter.
But Hibbert is primarily an offensive player.
Though he does block a few shots and he does seem to aggressively guard his space defensively, offense is his real focus. As a result, it is tough to imagine him having any real success in the pros. If you were to paint him a pale color and put him in a Utah or Wyoming uniform he would look like another in the long line of awkward, failed 7 foot white centers who somehow always enthrall NBA GMs to the point where they will pass on great 6'5" players to gamble on the big guy.
Hibbert's real saving grace is that he does seem to have a real passion for the game. He does seem to really care; he tries hard. A good coach might be able to reorient his focus, from offense to defense, hone his meager physical talents, tap into that passion and convert him into a second coming of Dikembe Mutumbo.
Not the best center in the league, certainly, but definitely one worth investing in and keeping around.
Hibbert has the same kind of lumbering, mechanical approach. He has the same labored gait as he pounds up and down the court, appearing to die with each stride. Like Mutumbo, Hibbet makes easy plays look hard and seems incapable of making the simplest on-court task look routine.
For the real-life Mutumbo, that was fine because it is much easier to play like a hack if you are primarily rebounding and blocking shots. It is quite another thing to have the touch of a stevedore while you are trying to score. Anyone who's ever played a pick-up game at the local park knows this: if you have the coordination of PeeWee Herman you can always rebound and play defense, if you have the will. Putting the ball through the hole and hitting a jumper will be another matter.
But Hibbert is primarily an offensive player.
Though he does block a few shots and he does seem to aggressively guard his space defensively, offense is his real focus. As a result, it is tough to imagine him having any real success in the pros. If you were to paint him a pale color and put him in a Utah or Wyoming uniform he would look like another in the long line of awkward, failed 7 foot white centers who somehow always enthrall NBA GMs to the point where they will pass on great 6'5" players to gamble on the big guy.
Hibbert's real saving grace is that he does seem to have a real passion for the game. He does seem to really care; he tries hard. A good coach might be able to reorient his focus, from offense to defense, hone his meager physical talents, tap into that passion and convert him into a second coming of Dikembe Mutumbo.
Not the best center in the league, certainly, but definitely one worth investing in and keeping around.
Zach Randolph: 6th Man Supreme?
Living in Portland, I get a chance to watch the Blazers and Zach Randolph on many occasions.
I'll write more about the Blazers as time goes on, but I want to offer a few thoughts about Randolph now.
I just read a brief analysis in Sports Illustrated that listed the 5 teams that just need one or two pieces in order to become formidable teams. One of those listed teams was the Blazers and Randolph was noted as one of the team's cornerstones.
This writer has done what just about everyone does when they look at Randolph: they look at the numbers but do not delve into his actual game. They see the 20 points, ten rebounds and pencil him in at the four spot, believing that he can post those numbers for a winning team, if other pieces are added.
Such a view is oblivious to Randolph's true game and does not truly analyze his real impact on a team and game. So far, no NBA GM has recognized Randolph's true value and attempted to utilize him most appropriately.
Zebo, as he is known here in Rip City, will never be a starter on a championship team, or even a team that wins lots of games. Instead, if he ever becomes an integral part of a championship-caliber team, it will be as a dominating 6th man.
His strengths and his weaknesses scream this reality. Unfortunately, his too-rich salary may never allow him to fulfill what should be his rightful destiny.
Zebo's game is about as subtle as a freight train barreling down the tracks. He plants himself in the low-post, and with an uncanny combination of quickness, explosiveness, relentlessness and guile, he gets points in the paint like Adrian Dantley with a bad body. Granted, he's about 5 inches taller than Dantley, and despite his lumpy body, he's more athletic than Dantley, but he has the same impact that Dantley had. After he's torched a team for 25 points, the other team's front line has to stand there shaking their heads, wondering how he did it.
Zebo is more like Moses Malone with a more rounded offensive game. Like Moses, he plants himself near the rim and plays volleyball, often with himself, as he racks up the points and rebounds. There's just no one who plays the game the way he plays it these days. It's fun to watch, as frustrating as it may be for opponents.
The problem is that when he starts, he plays the four spot. And at the four spot, his defensive weaknesses are glaring. And he has many defensive weakness. Most obvious is the fact that he has horrible lateral quickness. A wee bit undersized to begin with, with today's 7 foot power forwards who can play 15 feet from the basket, he is like a baby on a raft in the middle of the ocean when one of those new style fours isolates him out on a wing, or gets him into a pick-and-roll. Offenses can always game plan around exploiting him, and they often do.
A four has to be able to rebound - which he does well - block shots and play solid individual and team defense. A four who does those things well is as or more important than a center who does those things. San Antonio and Tim Duncan is the perfect example of this dynamic. They've won a couple of championships with a great power forward and a few guys named Joe playing the center spot.
Look at the last few champions and their starting power forwards: Udonis Hasleem, Rasheed Wallace and Duncan. Rebounding, defense and blocked shots. No one-dimensional scorers on the list.
Randolph is a board monster, but his strong rebounding does not compensate for the fact that he does none of the other things well.
So, as Portland gets better and goes deeper into the playoffs, his foibles will become more obvious and his value will lessen. Teams will look at him as a boutique player, a nice piece on a bad team but no one you would really want on a championship-caliber team.
That view ignores the kind of impact he could have as a 6th man on a great team.
When Detroit won its championship in '04, Corliss Williamson was an extremely important part of that team. He came into games and he changed the tone and course of those games by hurling his beefy body around the lane, causing havoc, scoring points and getting opponents' front lines in foul trouble. Simply, without Williamson, Detroit does not win that championship. One could argue that they have not won a championship since '04 because they foolishly got rid of Williamson, undervaluing his contribution.
Zebo is that same type of talent, but better. He's a better, more versatile offensive player: he can step out and hit a 15 foot jumper with ease. He's a better rebounder; he is a good defensive rebounder and he may be the best offensive rebounder in the league. He has the knack of being in the right spot around the rim and he is one of those Rodman-type quick leapers. He can get off the floor for a couple of sneaky taps before other players have gathered themselves for that one powerful leap. He seems to have excellent vision and anticipation and he knows just where to put that bulky frame so that he can get his fingertips on the ball as it rolls off a rim.
Championship caliber teams need that type of player. Just look at the last few champions and remember Antoine Walker and Manu Ginobli and Corliss "Big Nasty" Williamson. Do Miami and San Antoinio and Detroit win without those contributions? Absolutely not.
Players like that send a jolt of energy and power into a team that may be a little lethargic or that may be stymied by the starter matchups. They may be able to better exploit tired starters or subs that are not quite defensive stalwarts.
As a 6th man, Zebo's job would be obvious: score.
His defensive liabilities would be unimportant. Other teams would have to worry about him and they could not game plan around the fact that he could be exploited defensively.
He would be like a Queen on a chess board, a piece you could move around and use as needed. If he could exploit a power forward, put him in at the four spot. If he could overpower the small forward, put him in as the three. On rare occasions, you might be able to even play him at the center spot. As a 6th man, he would be a devastating player, a matchup nightmare and a championship maker.
The biggest problem with that scenario is the fact that he is paid like a franchise player and franchise players do not come off the bench. Plain and simple. The fact that he makes that level of salary limits what other teams might be able to do with him. At his present salary, what team wants to take him on to bring him off the bench? It is hard to imagine.
There may be a way to work around this essential quandary. How? Well, I do not know, though figuring stuff like that out is why GMs are paid the big bucks.
If someone can resolve that issue, or if what happened to Chris Webber - a buy-out that lets him make his own deal - ever happened to Zebo, then Randolph may be able to finally play the game he can play and make his best contribution.
Will it ever happen? Will a GM ever be smart enough to envision Zebo as the John Havlicek of the 21 century? Only time will tell....
I'll write more about the Blazers as time goes on, but I want to offer a few thoughts about Randolph now.
I just read a brief analysis in Sports Illustrated that listed the 5 teams that just need one or two pieces in order to become formidable teams. One of those listed teams was the Blazers and Randolph was noted as one of the team's cornerstones.
This writer has done what just about everyone does when they look at Randolph: they look at the numbers but do not delve into his actual game. They see the 20 points, ten rebounds and pencil him in at the four spot, believing that he can post those numbers for a winning team, if other pieces are added.
Such a view is oblivious to Randolph's true game and does not truly analyze his real impact on a team and game. So far, no NBA GM has recognized Randolph's true value and attempted to utilize him most appropriately.
Zebo, as he is known here in Rip City, will never be a starter on a championship team, or even a team that wins lots of games. Instead, if he ever becomes an integral part of a championship-caliber team, it will be as a dominating 6th man.
His strengths and his weaknesses scream this reality. Unfortunately, his too-rich salary may never allow him to fulfill what should be his rightful destiny.
Zebo's game is about as subtle as a freight train barreling down the tracks. He plants himself in the low-post, and with an uncanny combination of quickness, explosiveness, relentlessness and guile, he gets points in the paint like Adrian Dantley with a bad body. Granted, he's about 5 inches taller than Dantley, and despite his lumpy body, he's more athletic than Dantley, but he has the same impact that Dantley had. After he's torched a team for 25 points, the other team's front line has to stand there shaking their heads, wondering how he did it.
Zebo is more like Moses Malone with a more rounded offensive game. Like Moses, he plants himself near the rim and plays volleyball, often with himself, as he racks up the points and rebounds. There's just no one who plays the game the way he plays it these days. It's fun to watch, as frustrating as it may be for opponents.
The problem is that when he starts, he plays the four spot. And at the four spot, his defensive weaknesses are glaring. And he has many defensive weakness. Most obvious is the fact that he has horrible lateral quickness. A wee bit undersized to begin with, with today's 7 foot power forwards who can play 15 feet from the basket, he is like a baby on a raft in the middle of the ocean when one of those new style fours isolates him out on a wing, or gets him into a pick-and-roll. Offenses can always game plan around exploiting him, and they often do.
A four has to be able to rebound - which he does well - block shots and play solid individual and team defense. A four who does those things well is as or more important than a center who does those things. San Antonio and Tim Duncan is the perfect example of this dynamic. They've won a couple of championships with a great power forward and a few guys named Joe playing the center spot.
Look at the last few champions and their starting power forwards: Udonis Hasleem, Rasheed Wallace and Duncan. Rebounding, defense and blocked shots. No one-dimensional scorers on the list.
Randolph is a board monster, but his strong rebounding does not compensate for the fact that he does none of the other things well.
So, as Portland gets better and goes deeper into the playoffs, his foibles will become more obvious and his value will lessen. Teams will look at him as a boutique player, a nice piece on a bad team but no one you would really want on a championship-caliber team.
That view ignores the kind of impact he could have as a 6th man on a great team.
When Detroit won its championship in '04, Corliss Williamson was an extremely important part of that team. He came into games and he changed the tone and course of those games by hurling his beefy body around the lane, causing havoc, scoring points and getting opponents' front lines in foul trouble. Simply, without Williamson, Detroit does not win that championship. One could argue that they have not won a championship since '04 because they foolishly got rid of Williamson, undervaluing his contribution.
Zebo is that same type of talent, but better. He's a better, more versatile offensive player: he can step out and hit a 15 foot jumper with ease. He's a better rebounder; he is a good defensive rebounder and he may be the best offensive rebounder in the league. He has the knack of being in the right spot around the rim and he is one of those Rodman-type quick leapers. He can get off the floor for a couple of sneaky taps before other players have gathered themselves for that one powerful leap. He seems to have excellent vision and anticipation and he knows just where to put that bulky frame so that he can get his fingertips on the ball as it rolls off a rim.
Championship caliber teams need that type of player. Just look at the last few champions and remember Antoine Walker and Manu Ginobli and Corliss "Big Nasty" Williamson. Do Miami and San Antoinio and Detroit win without those contributions? Absolutely not.
Players like that send a jolt of energy and power into a team that may be a little lethargic or that may be stymied by the starter matchups. They may be able to better exploit tired starters or subs that are not quite defensive stalwarts.
As a 6th man, Zebo's job would be obvious: score.
His defensive liabilities would be unimportant. Other teams would have to worry about him and they could not game plan around the fact that he could be exploited defensively.
He would be like a Queen on a chess board, a piece you could move around and use as needed. If he could exploit a power forward, put him in at the four spot. If he could overpower the small forward, put him in as the three. On rare occasions, you might be able to even play him at the center spot. As a 6th man, he would be a devastating player, a matchup nightmare and a championship maker.
The biggest problem with that scenario is the fact that he is paid like a franchise player and franchise players do not come off the bench. Plain and simple. The fact that he makes that level of salary limits what other teams might be able to do with him. At his present salary, what team wants to take him on to bring him off the bench? It is hard to imagine.
There may be a way to work around this essential quandary. How? Well, I do not know, though figuring stuff like that out is why GMs are paid the big bucks.
If someone can resolve that issue, or if what happened to Chris Webber - a buy-out that lets him make his own deal - ever happened to Zebo, then Randolph may be able to finally play the game he can play and make his best contribution.
Will it ever happen? Will a GM ever be smart enough to envision Zebo as the John Havlicek of the 21 century? Only time will tell....
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Greetings...
My first post.
I like sports.
I love movies.
I love good books.
I also love music.
I also like politics.
I'll probably write about everything but politics, though I will concentrate on sports.
I'll explain why as I go forward.
Right now, I'm really interested in NBA basketball. I'll probably post lots of stuff on that subject.
I also love hockey, though I do not get to watch it that much anymore and therefore do not have lots to say about it at this time.
Well, I just wanted to get this online and now I must get to sleep.
Hope you come across this blog often in the future. I think it'll be interesting.
I like sports.
I love movies.
I love good books.
I also love music.
I also like politics.
I'll probably write about everything but politics, though I will concentrate on sports.
I'll explain why as I go forward.
Right now, I'm really interested in NBA basketball. I'll probably post lots of stuff on that subject.
I also love hockey, though I do not get to watch it that much anymore and therefore do not have lots to say about it at this time.
Well, I just wanted to get this online and now I must get to sleep.
Hope you come across this blog often in the future. I think it'll be interesting.
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